Tactiques militaires de l'EI-Synthèse 1 via Stéphane Mantoux

Comment analyser les tactiques militaires de l’EI ? Travaillant sur l’analyse de leurs vidéos militaires depuis plus de six mois désormais1, la meilleure solution m’a paru être de partir de cas concrets pour en tirer des conclusions plus générales. Pour ce faire, j’ai dressé un questionnaire-type que j’applique maintenant à chaque vidéo militaire de l’EI, afin de la renseigner au mieux. Le passage des 5 premières vidéos (janvier-février 2016) par ce questionnaire-type permet de dresser une esquisse des tactiques employées par l’EI. Dans cette démarche, je m’appuie sur un article récent du CTC Sentinel2 écrit par un véritable spécialiste, ce que je ne suis pas. Il est évident, en effet, que davantage de lectures me sont nécessaires pour déterminer en particulier les origines des méthodes de combat employées par l’EI que l’on peut observer à travers leurs vidéos.


Les chevaliers de la victoire – épisode 6 (wilayat Falloujah)

Cette vidéo a été mise en ligne le 26 janvier 20163. Elle évoque une opération qui a manifestement eu lieu le 1er janvier précédent, dans le secteur de Saqlawiyah, ville au nord-ouest de Falloujah, dans la province irakienne d’al-Anbar, que l’armée irakienne tente de reprendre à l’EI. Ce dernier attaque une installation fixe de l’armée irakienne, probablement une caserne défendue par une petite garnison. Les défenseurs disposent de véhicules (plusieurs Humvees) et surtout d’un char T-72 qui va donne du fil à retordre aux attaquants. Ils sont appuyés par des appareils américains (1 A-10, 1 C-130J-30) et irakiens (1 Su-25).
Read more the blogpost : http://historicoblog3.blogspot.fr/2016/04/tactiques-militaires-de-lei-synthese-1.html

#daesh, #strategy, #war

Russia's path to war in #Syria, part II via Ruslan Leviev

How long have Russian troops been operating in Syria?

The Russia Today dispatch we’ve mentioned earlier shows significant footage of a Russian Su-24 fencer (numbered “26 white”) with painted-over RuAF insignia (a red star) and registration number:

The full blogpost: http://ruslanleviev.livejournal.com/40986.html

#aircrafts, #army, #intervention, #jable, #latakia, #russia, #tartus, #war

Russia's path to war in #Syria, part I via Ruslan Leviev

Table of contents

Shipment of aircrafts and personnel
Russian air force in Syrian skies
Syrian air force
The first Russian air strikes in Syria
The Talbiseh air strike
Who controls Talbiseh
The Al-Latmenah air strike
What bombs are used by the Russian air force?
How long have Russian troops been operating in Syria?
Our plans and support for our team

After our previous investigation on the Russian troops in Syria, the situation on the ground has changed significantly. The Kremlin’s official position on our troops in Syria changed just as rapidly. When we published our investigation, one of the marines of the 810th brigade featured in our report, Yuriy Artamonov, was urgently shipped back to Crimea. A TV piece was shot with him telling no one had sent him anywhere and his wife’s account had been hacked to plant information on him being sent to Syria. The piece was aired on Russian national TV channel “Russia 24”.

Shipment of aircrafts and personnel

Mere days later, the official stance changed into “yes, there are our soldiers at the Latakia airbase, but they are just guarding it and preparing it to receive humanitarian cargo.” Since 2013, Russia indeed has been shipping humanitarian aid to Syria from time to time, as evidenced by state contract data. However, the humanitarian aid was shipped by Russia’s Ministry of Emergencies aircraft, namely Il-76 Candids (which are often used to deliver humanitarian cargo), not An-124 Condors (generally used for shipments of heavy vehicles and equipment); the flights went out of Domodedovo and Ramenskoe airports in Moscow. The fact that humanitarian cargo was previously shipped by the Ministry of Emergencies is also evident from this news piece:

The full blogpost : http://ruslanleviev.livejournal.com/40836.html

#aircrafts, #army, #intervention, #jable, #latakia, #russia, #tartus, #war

Russia ups the ante in #Syria


The Russians have been long-standing and loyal supporters of the Assad regime – both with diplomatic cover and practical support on the ground.

This support appears to have significantly increased with the deployment of some 2,000 military personnel and about a half dozen tanks – of what the New York Times describes as their “most modern” variants – at an airfield near the Assad stronghold of Latakia.

Moscow has been sending two military cargo flights a day to the airfield over the past few weeks, US officials say. Satellite images put out by Foreign Policy confirm what the Institute for the Study of War has called a “game changer” in the conflict.

– See more at: http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2015/9/22/russia-ups-the-ante-in-syria#sthash.xDbzoE8z.dpuf

#intervention, #isis, #russia, #syria, #war

The Crisis of the Assad Regime

Damascus faces a long decline unless major factors change relating to regime strategy, additional resources from allies, or a collapse in rebel unity of effort.

Last week, the Bashar al-Assad regime suffered two significant defeats at the hands of two different armed opposition forces: the first to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) at Palmyra in eastern Homs province, and the second to Jaish al-Fatah forces, to which it lost its last major foothold in Idlib province. While these defeats do not signal the regime’s imminent demise, they do indicate that the war is running against it and that a long recession has likely begun, leading to the state’s collapse or contraction.

The regime and its allies will fight back and will likely have some successes on some fronts of the war, but after more than four years of fighting basic factors in the conflict are tilting against the regime and the regime’s capacity to redress the balance. It would require major changes in the situation for this to be stopped or reversed, including: a shift to a strategy of consolidation, a significant increase in commitment of forces by the regime’s allies, reversing the upward trend in rebel capabilities, or outside diplomatic intervention to freeze or resolve the conflict.
The Elements of Regime Military Failure

Analysis of the fighting points to five major factors behind the regime’s military decline.

More: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-crisis-of-the-assad-regime

#fsa, #assad, #crisis, #regime, #war