Translated excerpts of an interview by Colonel Hatem alRawi to Arabi 21;
Regime and Daesh economical relations:
E. Homs is important because of Tadmur/Palmyra and its Badiya. The Badiya is economically primordial because it is the unique gas supply which feeds the entire regime areas in electricity.
The workers who work in the gas fields that are controlled by Daesh spend get their salaries from the regime and spend their holidays in the regime areas, Knowing that economical relation closeness, it cannot be excluded that the regime supplies and supports the organization with heavy weapons for more steadfastness against Turkey in the Battle of alBab.
The military aspects:
The flow of arm supply to Daesh :
There is Ummayr Mountain to the north of Tadmur where the largest arm depots inside long and large caves. The other most important depots in the area are Muheen; Jub alJarrah.
A staged attack
Tadmur geography does not make it easy to be conquered as it seems. Daesh has failed to conquer the town despite the repeated attacks and cannot conquer it from the west, the south and the east. It is surrounded by the mountains to the west and to the south, and by alMallaha to the east. The Roads in those areas are limited and can be blocked easily. The north is the only window to enter Tadmur. The area is an opened geographic space and can be controlled as well as monitored on a long distance.
Daesh recent attack did not meet any resistance, which makes it look as if it entered with an agreement and not through a military operation. Russia must have withdrawn toward T4 than southward toward Khanifis. It can be expected to return and retake same way the town and hand it back to the regime. In that way, it succeeds to draw the world attention on Daesh danger by withdrawing from Tadmur, and gives more legitimacy to its intervention against terrorism in Syria.
The Euphrates Shield
Russia as well as the regime does not want Turkey to be victorious in alBab and wants to disturb it. On one hand Russia who has stopped the regime from shelling the ES armed forces, is complicating the situation with helping Daesh to enter Tadmur and resupply in arms, without being accused to help a terrorist organisation, on the other hand.
The future scenarios :
Daesh will not focus on alQalamun this time. It will focus on the Mahjura battalion to the north of T4, and is in Tyas mountain on the Jahar road that is under its control. Daesh has no possibility to control the Damascus-Baghdad highway in an opened geographic area and is 200 km far from Tadmur, unless Russia decides otherwise. From the desert side, Daesh can attack but from the Iraqi side only which is not under its control.
Many wonders if Daesh will push toward T4 air base. This is doubtful because Russia will not allow it to gain control over important airbases. Russia will hardly let Daesh enters the airbase and damage it.
The future scenario could be as follows : Either Russia will launch an attack and will be hailed as another victory added to Aleppo (that is the most likely one to happen), or let Daesh in Tadmur to give an excuse to the Iraki Hashd alSha’bi enters the town.
Russia and the regime have both an interest to keep Daesh, or at least to last longer, and the IC alike mostly in Irak. Daesh is the snake that the US dropped into the region and allowed Russia and Iran and the regime to deal with it without killing it. Daesh death is an US decision and no one else.
The link to the arabic interview : https://medium.com/arabi-21/%D8%AE%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AF%D8%AB-%D9%84%D9%80-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A21-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%A3%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%B1-268d6ab7d3c4#.tnq2c1ups